The Major Trend Index holds at High Neutral, with Leuthold's tactical accounts maintaining 51% net equity exposure. The S&P 500 notched its fifth all-time closing high in eight sessions, completing a 100% gain since the bull market began in October 2022, though weekly returns were modest and triggered minimal MTI scoring changes.
Semiconductors remain the dominant story: the PHLX Semiconductor Index closed Friday on an 18-day win streak, up 47% over that span, fueling chip and AI-heavy indexes while broader market breadth narrows. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted index's YTD lead has essentially vanished the average stock is up just 7% since the March 30th bounce, versus 13% for the cap-weighted index. Leuthold characterizes the current Technical picture as resembling the middle six months of 2025 - Info Tech dominated and narrow noting that the S&P 500's latest high looks more consistent with prior market tops than the broad-based highs seen this past winter.
Click here to read more of the "Major Trend Index" article.