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With the first monthly drop since July 2022, the negative m/m headline CPI number (-0.1%) triggered another round of dovish reactions. Bonds and small caps were bid, and the dollar was offered. The Fed rate cut expectations jumped from 2 to 3 for the rest of the year. By now, we should all be very familiar with the overreaction that comes with every 0.1% beat/miss. What’s new this time is the rotation from large AI-related growth stocks to small caps. One day does not make a trend but this is clearly worth monitoring.

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