The Major Trend Index holds at Neutral for the week ending July 10, as strong headline gains in the S&P 500 (+1.2%) and Nasdaq (+1.7%) masked a narrower rally underneath - the average stock actually lost 30 bps, and Valuation, Sentiment, and Cyclical readings stay negative-leaning despite a modest Technical improvement, all while Leuthold's tactical accounts hold 54% net equity exposure. The dominant theme is rising long-end rates, which are simultaneously weighing on Cyclical Liquidity measures and yield-adjusted Valuation metrics, and are the main drag on Leuthold's "Quattro Model" (currently a "three-of-four" favorable setup historically tied to roughly average, ~10.3% annualized S&P returns); notably, Financials have swung from the weakest to arguably the strongest sector since the S&P's June 4th high - all three financial indices tracked hit new all-time highs last week, just ahead of bank earnings season even as the previously bulletproof tech-heavy indexes have gone sideways.
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