The Leuthold Group's MTI holds at Neutral, with tactical net equity exposure at a moderate 54%. June's early broadening reversed in the holiday-shortened week as AI and semiconductor momentum names led again - the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose another 7% and now sits 72% above its 200-day average, while the average S&P 500 stock slipped about 1%, a narrowness that keeps the Technicals split. Elsewhere, pressure points eased: crude is down ~30%, one-year inflation breakevens have fallen from just over 3% to under 2%, and long-end yields slipped ~25 bps even as near-term rates rose on growing odds of a fall hike. Valuation, Cyclical, and Sentiment all read negative (with margin debt a growing watch item), leaving Technical as the lone bright spot and few near-term catalysts on the horizon.
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