Leuthold's Major Trend Index held Neutral for the week ending July 17, as persistent negatives continued to offset improving technicals. The past month's momentum unwind deepened, with semiconductors (SOXX -10% for the week, -20% since June 22) and Korea's KOSPI (-9% for the week, -25% since June 22) giving back sharp gains, while cyclicals, defensives, and the Mag 7 picked up the slack - a rotation rather than a risk-off move, per Leuthold. High/Low Logic Indexes have improved, pointing to a less internally split (and healthier) market than earlier this summer. Inflation remains the key overhang: cooler June CPI/PPI eased near-term pressure, but Leuthold's Inflation Scorecard extended a five-month uptrend to 63/100, now driven more by demand-pull factors (consumer spending, investment, government spending) than the cost-push pressures (oil, commodities) that first drove the reading higher in March. Leuthold tactical accounts remain at 54% net equity exposure, matching the Neutral stance.
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