The S&P 500’s estimated bottom-up operating EPS shrank 2% during the first month of Q3 reporting (Chart 1). A similar, slighter larger drop in the EPS estimate was experienced in July, as results were tallied for Q2’s first month of reporting. That initial Q2 deficit was recouped over the next two months and actual results eventually ended higher than what was projected at the beginning of earnings season. To maintain this year’s strong earnings streak, where results match estimates (not common), we’ll need another “spring-back” scenario at the back end of Q3.
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